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With four rounds left in the AFL season, the Coleman Medal race is still wide open. The medal is awarded to the player who kicks the most goals for the season and currently, it is a three player race. The favourite is currently Lance Franklin who leads with 60 goals for the season. In second place is West Coast forward Josh Kennedy with 59 and third is Gold Coast’s Tom Lynch who has 57. With such a tight margin between them, it is very much anyone’s race, but there is some good value in the market.
Both Franklin and Kennedy are even money bets at about $2.00 at most bookmakers, but Lynch, who is only three goals behind, sits at closer to $6.50 at some places. Of course, prepare for the odds to fluctuate heavily over the final month of footy. One by one, let’s analyse the chances of each man to walk away with the medal.
Lance Franklin (Sydney)
Franklin is the betting favourite and for good reason as the Swans forward has had a consistently strong 2016. He’s averaging a little over three goals per game and has only been held goalless once. Of course, the most important thing to analyse is his final four games and whether he’ll be in a position to kick enough goals to win the medal. The Swans first take on Port Adelaide at the SCG. Franklin’s career average against the Power matches his season average, so you’re probably safe to lock him in for at least two goals. The Swans then have St Kilda at Etihad Stadium. The Saints are another team where Franklin averages three goals and with St Kilda’s finals hopes now snuffed out, it’s hard to know how they’ll perform. We’re putting Franklin down for between three and four here. Sydney finishes the year with Richmond and North Melbourne and once again, Franklin’s average sits at about three goals a game between them. This shows how consistent player he is and why you can probably lock him in for about 12 more goals for this season.
Predicted final tally: 71
Josh Kennedy (West Coast)
Kennedy is the reigning Coleman Medallist and currently sits one goal behind Franklin on the leaderboard. Kennedy is a little more up and down with his scoring, but is capable of very large bags on his best day meaning you can never count him out. The Eagles take on Fremantle in the Derby and with Zac Dawson suspended, Kennedy will have an easier time up forward. Considering where Fremantle are on the ladder, Kennedy could be in for a bag here. We’re putting him down for five. West Coast then take on GWS in a game where you’d expect the latter to dominate, but Kennedy does average six goals against the expansion side, which should give him some confidence. Hawthorn and Adelaide are their final two challenges and given the quality of the opposition, it’s hard to see Kennedy being given a chance to dominate. Given the tough draw, we expect Kennedy to add about 10 to 12 goals. It’ll be hard for him to overtake Franklin who has a one goal advantage, but it is possible.
Predicted final tally: 68
Tom Lynch (Gold Coast)
Lynch is the least likely of the three for a number of reasons, but is certainly not out of the race. Lynch has broken out as one of the premier key forwards in the competition this year and just needs a fit Gold Coast list to build himself into a massive goal kicker. As a younger player, his averages against sides from previous years aren’t worth factoring into the calculations. Instead, we’ll simply look at the quality of the teams he is facing. Gold Coast take on GWS this week and as a lower side, you’d expect the Giants to win comfortably. Lynch should be able to pick up a goal or two regardless. The next three weeks are where it gets interesting. Gold Coast first play the Bombers under the roof of Etihad Stadium. In other words, perfect storm for a big bag of goals. They then take on the Pies where anything is possible and finish with the hapless Brisbane. Considering the Lions just conceded 173 points to Port Adelaide, Lynch kicking 10 isn’t out of the question. To sum up, Lynch will have every opportunity to win this award.
Predicted final tally: 70
Best Australian Bookmaker Odds:
Lance Franklin to win: $2.00 at William Hill
Tom Lynch to win: $6.00 at Sportsbet
Josh Kennedy to win: $2.10 at Centrebet
We predict that Lance Franklin will win his fourth Coleman Medal, but expect Tom Lynch to be more than close enough to warrant a punt. The margin shouldn’t be more than a few goals and with Lynch’s favourable fixture, $6.00 at sportsbet.com.au is decent odds considering how even it will be.
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